Refinance Break-Even Index
Q3 2026 edition · data as of July 2, 2026
Estimated refinance break-even months by state, calculated from Lendtrain's wholesale pricing engine for the representative scenario described below.
NMLS #1844873 | Equal Housing Opportunity
Ranked fastest break-even first
State Refinance Break-Even Table
Rate and APR are shown with equal visual prominence. All figures are estimates under the stated assumptions.
| State | 30-year fixed rate | APR | Points | Est. closing costs | Est. monthly savings | Break-even (months) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | 6.375% | 6.414% | 0.07 | $3,731 | $234 | 16 |
| Kentucky | 6.375% | 6.414% | 0.07 | $3,834 | $234 | 17 |
| Oregon | 6.375% | 6.423% | 0.16 | $4,097 | $234 | 18 |
| Tennessee | 6.375% | 6.418% | 0.11 | $4,211 | $234 | 18 |
| North Carolina | 6.375% | 6.417% | 0.09 | $4,373 | $234 | 19 |
| South Carolina | 6.375% | 6.418% | 0.11 | $4,497 | $234 | 20 |
| Texas | 6.375% | 6.392% | -0.17 | $4,826 | $234 | 21 |
| Georgia | 6.375% | 6.405% | -0.03 | $5,193 | $234 | 23 |
| Alabama | 6.375% | 6.418% | 0.10 | $5,553 | $234 | 24 |
| Florida | 6.375% | 6.403% | -0.06 | $6,793 | $234 | 30 |
Key Findings
- Utah had the fastest estimated break-even among priced states at 16 months.
- Florida had the slowest applicable estimated break-even at 30 months, a 14-month spread from the fastest state.
- The rate spread across priced states was 0.000% under the representative scenario.
- Estimated total closing costs averaged $4,711 across priced states.
Methodology
Scenario: conventional rate-and-term refinance, 30-year fixed term, $400,000 loan amount, 75% loan-to-value, 740 credit score, primary residence, single-family property, one unit, and a 30-day lock period in each of the 10 states where Lendtrain is licensed.
Baseline current mortgage: 7.25% on a 30-year fixed $400,000 loan, producing an estimated current principal-and-interest payment of $2,729. Lendtrain uses 7.25% as a representative comparison point for homeowners who originated or reset into higher-rate loans during the 2023-era rate environment.
Closing costs: estimated total closing costs are taken from the pricer's closing-cost breakdown total. That total may include lender fees, third-party fees, title and settlement fees, recording fees, state taxes, and discount points where applicable.
Formula: estimated monthly savings equals the baseline current P&I payment minus the new estimated monthly P&I payment. Break-even months equals estimated total closing costs divided by estimated monthly savings, rounded up. When estimated monthly savings are zero or negative, break-even is shown as not applicable at current rates.
Data source and refresh cadence: estimates are generated from the Lendtrain wholesale pricing engine. This page uses 5-second pricing timeouts, retries each state once, and revalidates no less frequently than every 6 hours.
Disclosures
Estimates are based on the stated assumptions and may change without notice. This research is not a commitment to lend, an offer of credit, and does not promise savings. Actual rates, APR, points, payments, closing costs, eligibility, and break-even periods depend on verified borrower, property, loan, market, and lock details.
Atlantic Home Mortgage, LLC dba Lendtrain. NMLS #1844873. Equal Housing Opportunity.