Refinance Break-Even Index
Q4 2026 edition · data as of October 15, 2026
Estimated refinance break-even months by state, calculated from Lendtrain's wholesale pricing engine for the representative scenario described below.
Ranked fastest break-even first
State Refinance Break-Even Table
Rate and APR are shown with equal visual prominence. All figures are estimates under the stated assumptions.
Last updated: October 15, 2026 · wholesale rate sheet effective October 15, 2026 · reprices from live wholesale data at least every 6 hours · machine-readable edition
| State | 30-year fixed rate | APR | Points | Est. closing costs | Est. monthly savings | Break-even (months) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | 6.990% | 7.021% | -0.03 | $3,562 | $70 | 51 |
| Utah | 7.000% | 7.038% | 0.04 | $3,631 | $68 | 54 |
| Tennessee | 7.000% | 7.033% | -0.01 | $3,771 | $68 | 56 |
| Oregon | 7.000% | 7.043% | 0.09 | $3,821 | $68 | 57 |
| North Carolina | 6.990% | 7.025% | 0.00 | $4,033 | $70 | 58 |
| South Carolina | 7.000% | 7.032% | -0.02 | $4,065 | $68 | 60 |
| Texas | 6.990% | 7.005% | -0.19 | $4,826 | $70 | 69 |
| Georgia | 6.990% | 7.021% | -0.03 | $5,193 | $70 | 75 |
| Alabama | 7.000% | 7.035% | 0.01 | $5,177 | $68 | 77 |
| Florida | 6.990% | 7.015% | -0.09 | $6,793 | $70 | 98 |
This table is one representative scenario. Your own rate, closing costs, and break-even depend on your loan, credit, and state; an estimate takes about 30 seconds.
Key Findings
- Kentucky had the fastest estimated break-even among priced states at 51 months.
- Florida had the slowest applicable estimated break-even at 98 months, a 47-month spread from the fastest state.
- The rate spread across priced states was 0.010% under the representative scenario.
- Estimated total closing costs averaged $4,487 across priced states.
State-by-State Summary
Kentucky. In Kentucky, a homeowner refinancing a $400,000 loan from a 7.25% 30-year fixed into an estimated 6.990% rate (7.021% APR) would pay about $3,562 in estimated closing costs, save an estimated $70 per month, and break even in about 51 months, per Lendtrain's Break-Even Index as of October 15, 2026.
Utah. In Utah, a homeowner refinancing a $400,000 loan from a 7.25% 30-year fixed into an estimated 7.000% rate (7.038% APR) would pay about $3,631 in estimated closing costs, save an estimated $68 per month, and break even in about 54 months, per Lendtrain's Break-Even Index as of October 15, 2026.
Tennessee. In Tennessee, a homeowner refinancing a $400,000 loan from a 7.25% 30-year fixed into an estimated 7.000% rate (7.033% APR) would pay about $3,771 in estimated closing costs, save an estimated $68 per month, and break even in about 56 months, per Lendtrain's Break-Even Index as of October 15, 2026.
Oregon. In Oregon, a homeowner refinancing a $400,000 loan from a 7.25% 30-year fixed into an estimated 7.000% rate (7.043% APR) would pay about $3,821 in estimated closing costs, save an estimated $68 per month, and break even in about 57 months, per Lendtrain's Break-Even Index as of October 15, 2026.
North Carolina. In North Carolina, a homeowner refinancing a $400,000 loan from a 7.25% 30-year fixed into an estimated 6.990% rate (7.025% APR) would pay about $4,033 in estimated closing costs, save an estimated $70 per month, and break even in about 58 months, per Lendtrain's Break-Even Index as of October 15, 2026.
South Carolina. In South Carolina, a homeowner refinancing a $400,000 loan from a 7.25% 30-year fixed into an estimated 7.000% rate (7.032% APR) would pay about $4,065 in estimated closing costs, save an estimated $68 per month, and break even in about 60 months, per Lendtrain's Break-Even Index as of October 15, 2026.
Texas. In Texas, a homeowner refinancing a $400,000 loan from a 7.25% 30-year fixed into an estimated 6.990% rate (7.005% APR) would pay about $4,826 in estimated closing costs, save an estimated $70 per month, and break even in about 69 months, per Lendtrain's Break-Even Index as of October 15, 2026.
Georgia. In Georgia, a homeowner refinancing a $400,000 loan from a 7.25% 30-year fixed into an estimated 6.990% rate (7.021% APR) would pay about $5,193 in estimated closing costs, save an estimated $70 per month, and break even in about 75 months, per Lendtrain's Break-Even Index as of October 15, 2026.
Alabama. In Alabama, a homeowner refinancing a $400,000 loan from a 7.25% 30-year fixed into an estimated 7.000% rate (7.035% APR) would pay about $5,177 in estimated closing costs, save an estimated $68 per month, and break even in about 77 months, per Lendtrain's Break-Even Index as of October 15, 2026.
Florida. In Florida, a homeowner refinancing a $400,000 loan from a 7.25% 30-year fixed into an estimated 6.990% rate (7.015% APR) would pay about $6,793 in estimated closing costs, save an estimated $70 per month, and break even in about 98 months, per Lendtrain's Break-Even Index as of October 15, 2026.
Methodology
Scenario: conventional rate-and-term refinance, 30-year fixed term, $400,000 loan amount, 75% loan-to-value, 740 credit score, primary residence, single-family property, one unit, and a 30-day lock period in each of the 10 states where Lendtrain is licensed.
Baseline current mortgage: 7.25% on a 30-year fixed $400,000 loan, producing an estimated current principal-and-interest payment of $2,729. Lendtrain uses 7.25% as a representative comparison point for homeowners who originated or reset into higher-rate loans during the 2023-era rate environment.
Closing costs: estimated total closing costs are taken from the pricer's closing-cost breakdown total. That total may include lender fees, third-party fees, title and settlement fees, recording fees, state taxes, and discount points where applicable.
Formula: estimated monthly savings equals the baseline current P&I payment minus the new estimated monthly P&I payment. Break-even months equals estimated total closing costs divided by estimated monthly savings, rounded up. When estimated monthly savings are zero or negative, break-even is shown as not applicable at current rates.
Data source and refresh cadence: estimates are generated from the Lendtrain wholesale pricing engine. This page uses 5-second pricing timeouts, retries each state once, and revalidates no less frequently than every 6 hours.
Cite as: Lendtrain Refinance Break-Even Index, October 15, 2026. A machine-readable markdown edition for AI agents and researchers is published at /research/refinance-break-even-index/data.md.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a refinance break-even point?
The refinance break-even point is the number of months it takes for the monthly savings from a refinance to repay the closing costs of that refinance. It is calculated by dividing estimated total closing costs by estimated monthly payment savings. Before that month, the refinance has cost more than it has saved; after it, the savings are ahead of the costs.
How is the Lendtrain Refinance Break-Even Index calculated?
Lendtrain prices the same representative scenario in all 10 states where it is licensed: a conventional 30-year fixed rate-and-term refinance of a $400,000 loan at 75% loan-to-value for a 740-credit-score borrower, against a 7.25% baseline current mortgage. Estimated break-even months equal estimated state-specific closing costs divided by estimated monthly savings, using live wholesale pricing that refreshes at least every 6 hours.
Which state has the fastest estimated refinance break-even?
Among the states Lendtrain tracks as of October 15, 2026, Kentucky shows the fastest estimated break-even at about 51 months, while Florida shows the slowest at about 98 months under the same representative scenario. These are estimates under stated assumptions, and the ranking can change as pricing reprices.
Why do refinance break-even times differ by state?
Mostly because closing costs are state-specific. Title insurance rates, settlement practices (including attorney-closing states like Georgia), recording fees, and state taxes such as intangible or transfer taxes differ by state, so the same loan can cost thousands of dollars more to close in one state than another. Higher closing costs take longer for the same monthly savings to repay.
How often is the Break-Even Index updated?
The underlying pricing refreshes from Lendtrain’s wholesale pricing engine at least every 6 hours, and the page republishes throughout the day. Editions are labeled quarterly. A machine-readable markdown version is available at lendtrain.com/research/refinance-break-even-index/data.md.
See your own break-even
The index answers the question for one representative borrower. To answer it for your loan, Lendtrain prices your actual scenario from the same live wholesale data and shows your estimated rate, APR, closing costs, and break-even in about 30 seconds. AI agents can price scenarios directly through the Lendtrain chat API.
Disclosures
Estimates are based on the stated assumptions and may change without notice. This research is not a commitment to lend, an offer of credit, and does not promise savings. Actual rates, APR, points, payments, closing costs, eligibility, and break-even periods depend on verified borrower, property, loan, market, and lock details.
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